Yunnan's power disturbances increase the future supply pattern of electrolytic aluminum?

As early as 2016, after the transfer of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity to traditional low-cost thermal power production areas reached its peak, Yunnan has already become a “competitive place” for new electrolytic aluminum production capacity by virtue of its advantages in hydropower, and major aluminum companies have brought indicators to Yunnan. , Restructure the pattern of the electrolytic aluminum industry. However, since this year, Yunnan has repeatedly reported power cuts and production reductions. In May, the aluminum plant’s electricity load continued to drop. In mid-July, there was a sudden explosion of coal supply. The surrounding high heat also caused the shortage of hydropower during the high water period. The aluminum plant previously resumed production. Production capacity has been reduced again, and plans for production resumption and new investment have also been shelved.

As far as the current power supply situation in Yunnan is concerned, at the end of June this year, the Wudongde Hydropower Station was put into operation, and the Baihetan Hydropower Station was also put into operation. Both gave the market a better power supply expectation. However, electricity appeared again when the hydropower was fully opened during the flood season in Yunnan. The tight situation has triggered strong market attention to Yunnan Hydropower. Based on this, we have integrated the power supply and demand in the whole province of Yunnan, and under the assumption that Baihetan will be put into production as planned, we believe that the power supply and demand in Yunnan will still be tight in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Even if the high water period lasts to the end of November, the third quarter The supply is still short of 1.9 billion kilowatt-hours, with a small surplus of about 500 million kilowatt-hours in the fourth quarter, but the overall situation is still tight. From this point of view, the recent flood period electricity situation in Yunnan may be maintained, which will hinder the commissioning of new production capacity of local electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan and the resumption of production capacity reduction. In addition, due to the current decline in coal storage in power plants and high coal prices, Yunnan’s power supply may not be able to keep up with power demand after the dry season in the fourth quarter, and it is not ruled out that the timing of the switchover between the high and low water periods may move forward, and the power supply shortage in Yunnan is also There is a probability that it will appear again. Therefore, in the whole year, the shortage of electricity supply continued. For electrolytic aluminum enterprises, the release rhythm of supply was further delayed, and the marginal increase in supply weakened.

In addition, from the perspective of the medium and long-term time dimension, the province’s electricity demand has increased significantly in Yunnan. Considering an increase of 4.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, an increase of 1 million tons of industrial silicon production capacity, and an increase of 140,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity, a rough calculation will increase the electricity demand by 82.2 billion kWh/year. If we do not consider the new generation of thermal power, wind power, photovoltaics, etc., according to the key hydropower projects currently planned in Yunnan Province, Wudongde, Baihetan and Toba can only provide about 16.2 billion kilowatt-hours/year of supply increase in the province. , Far less than the new electricity consumption in Yunnan Province. Therefore, unless Yunnan further increases investment and development of clean energy, according to the current planning situation, medium and long-term electricity in the province may become the norm, which will further restrict the normal production and new production of high-energy-consuming enterprises such as electrolytic aluminum plants. cast.

The power rationing in Yunnan during the flood season is almost the same as the reason behind the power rationing and production reduction of aluminum plants in Inner Mongolia under the dual control of energy consumption in March this year. As far as the current pattern of China’s electrolytic aluminum industry is concerned, after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology set a production ceiling in 2017, the policy vision of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutral” since September last year has made the electrolytic aluminum industry’s capacity development path further Clarify. The power curtailment and production reduction of aluminum plants in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia are the epitome of this industry change. The “ideal” is constantly “shining into reality”, and the explicit restriction of the “carbon peak” policy on electrolytic aluminum production capacity is already in place. Become a norm.

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