Jinrui Futures 2021 non-ferrous metals mid-year investment strategy meeting will be held on July 27, 2021 in Tianjin Conrad Hotel. Gao Weihong, a researcher at Jinrui Futures Research Institute, delivered a speech on the theme of “Changes in Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply under the Background of Carbon Neutrality”.
Gao Weihong said that in April 2021, relevant state departments issued the “Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Non-ferrous Metals Industry”. The “Plan” pointed out that the non-ferrous industry will strive to achieve carbon peak by 2025, and strive to achieve a carbon reduction of 40% by 2040. According to the statistics of the Nonferrous Industry Association, my country’s non-ferrous industry carbon dioxide emissions will be 660 million tons in 2020, accounting for 4.7% of the country’s total emissions, and the peak is expected to reach 750 million tons. The aluminum industry’s carbon dioxide emissions are 550 million tons, accounting for 83.3% of the color industry.
Since the supply-side reform in 2017, the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has been in the stage of capacity re-distribution, shifting from the north to the southwest. The production capacity of Shandong, Xinjiang, Henan and other regions has declined, and only Inner Mongolia is still in a situation of capacity growth; the southwestern region is still experiencing capacity growth due to hydropower Developed, it has become a favored place for the layout of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, and its production capacity has expanded rapidly. Since 2017, the growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has slowed down significantly, and the effect of supply-side reforms; according to agency statistics, as of the end of June 2021, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 42.801 million tons, and the capacity ceiling is gradually approaching.
Due to its rich hydropower resources, Yunnan has been vigorously developing hydropower stations in recent years, making it the second largest hydropower province in my country. In 2020, 81% of Yunnan’s power generation will come from hydropower, and the proportion of traditional thermal power generation will drop to 11%.
Gao Weihong pointed out that the decrease in rainfall in Yunnan in recent years has caused the river’s water level to be lower than average, which has affected the utilization rate of power generation. From January to April in 2021, the precipitation in Yunnan has not yet improved, and the accumulated precipitation has reached a low level in the past ten years, resulting in a relatively high water level in major rivers, which is still relatively dry compared to the annual average level. Precipitation and the drop in water levels have caused the power generation utilization rate in the dry season since 2019 to be at a low level in the past 10 years.
Gao Weihong also pointed out that thermal power generation in Yunnan is also difficult to increase significantly during the dry season. The installed capacity of thermal power generation in Yunnan has stabilized. From historical data, it is difficult for thermal power generation to provide a significant increase in the dry season. The electricity consumption of aluminum smelting has reached about 24% of the total electricity consumption of Yunnan Province, and the growth rate of electricity consumption is also significantly faster than that of other industries.