Non-ferrous industry in the first half of the year: the output of ten non-ferrous metals increased by 11.0% year-on-year

According to the operation report issued by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in the first half of this year, the economy of my country’s nonferrous metals industry is improving steadily and the quality of operation is improving.

First, the production of non-ferrous metals continued to grow steadily. In the first half of this year, the output of ten commonly used non-ferrous metals was 32.549 million tons, an increase of 11.0% year-on-year, and an average increase of 7.0% in two years. Among them, the output of refined copper was 5.154 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, and an average increase of 5.7% in two years; the output of primary aluminum was 19.635 million tons, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year, and an average increase of 5.6% in two years. The volume of six kinds of concentrate metals was 3.122 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and an average increase of 9.1% in two years. The output of alumina was 39.281 million tons, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year, and an average increase of 2.9% in two years. The output of copper material was 10.178 million tons, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, and an average increase of 7.2% in two years; the output of aluminum material was 29.658 million tons, an increase of 14.9% year-on-year, and an average increase of 9.9% in two years.

Second, investment in fixed assets is showing a recovery growth trend. After several years of continuous decline in the total investment in fixed assets in the non-ferrous metals industry, the total investment in fixed assets completed in the non-ferrous metals industry in the first half of this year increased by 15.7% year-on-year, and an average increase of 2.9% in two years. Among them, the investment in fixed assets completed by mining and dressing increased by 12.0% year-on-year; the investment in fixed assets completed by smelting and rolling increased by 16.5% year-on-year.

Third, in the first half of the year, the import and export volume of major metal products such as copper and aluminum increased year-on-year, and the import and export volume increased and decreased. In the first half of this year, my country’s copper concentrate imports amounted to US$25.70 billion, an increase of 58.2% year-on-year; the physical volume of imports was 11.499 million tons, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year, and an average increase of 4.5% in two years; and the value of bauxite imports was US$24.8, year-on-year A decline of 9%; imports amounted to 55.14 million tons, down 5.5% year-on-year, and an average increase of 1.3% over the two years.

In the first half of this year, China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper materials were US$25.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%; imports were 2.795 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Imports in the first half of 2019 were 2.272 million tons, an average increase in two years 10.9%; China’s exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products amounted to US$8.33 billion, an increase of 32.5% year-on-year; the export volume was 2.616 million tons, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year, and the export volume in the first half of 2019 was 2.978 million tons, an average drop of 6.3% in two years .

Fourth, the price of non-ferrous metals in the first half of the year once reached a historical high, but in June, it recovered from the high. In the first half of this year, the LME copper price for March futures hit a record high of US$10,747/ton. In the first half of the year, the average price of copper in the domestic spot market was 66,636 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%. In mid-May, the average spot price of copper in the domestic market was as high as 74,953 yuan/ton, and in late June, it adjusted back to 68,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6921 yuan/ton from mid-May, a decrease of 9.2%.

In the first half of this year, the average price of aluminum in the domestic spot market was 17,421 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 31.6%. In mid-May, the average aluminum price in the domestic spot market was as high as 19702 yuan/ton, and in late June it adjusted back to 18,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 967 yuan/ton from mid-May, a decrease of 4.9%.

Fifth, the non-ferrous metal enterprises on the regulations have achieved record high profits and improved economic operation quality. In the first half of this year, the regulated non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises (including independent gold companies) achieved a total profit of 163.97 billion yuan, an increase of 224.6% year-on-year (calculated on a comparable basis, the same below), and an increase of 35.66 billion yuan from the profit achieved in the first half of 2017. The four-year average growth rate was 6.3%.

At the end of June this year, the asset-liability ratio of non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises was 60.6%, which was 2.8 percentage points narrower than the same period in 2017; in the first half of this year, the operating income margin was 4.82%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points from the same period in 2017; The profit margin was 7.99%, an increase of 2.94% over the same period in 2017.

The Nonferrous Association believes that from the perspective of the global economic environment, global economic growth is expected to accelerate further in the second half of the year. The pace of recovery in developed economies will continue to emerging economies, but the virus mutation will increase the uncertainty of global epidemic control. The upward trend in global inflation has led to an increase in expectations for the normalization of monetary policies in major economies.

From the perspective of my country’s economic environment, domestic consumption and investment growth will continue to improve in the second half of the year, and the supporting role of domestic demand will further increase. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the uncertainty brought about by changes in the external environment is still a major variable affecting my country’s economy.

Based on the domestic and foreign macroeconomic environment, combined with the “Trinity” prosperity index report compiled and released by the Nonferrous Association, the Nonferrous Association predicts that the operation of the nonferrous metal industry in the second half of 2021 is expected to be stably strengthened and operated, provided that there is no “black swan” event. The quality is expected to be further improved:

First, the overall non-ferrous metal production in the second half of the year maintained a steady growth trend, but the year-on-year growth rate has narrowed, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. Second, the prices of major non-ferrous metals in the second half of the year showed a trend of high-level correction. In the medium and long term, copper prices do not have the conditions to get out of the “super-cycle” price market that continues to rise; with the implementation of policies such as carbon emissions and the improvement of supply and demand fundamentals, the long-term low-level debt of aluminum prices is expected to be improved. The third is that the realized profit in the third and fourth quarters may be slightly adjusted compared to the second quarter, but the realized profit for the whole year is expected to hit a record high. Fourth, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal industry gradually narrowed in the second half of the year, but it is still expected to achieve positive growth throughout the year. Fifth, the export of non-ferrous metal products in the second half of the year is expected to maintain or be better than the export level of the first half of the year.

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