Development and Reform Commission: to ensure the realization of this year's overall price level control target

The National Development and Reform Commission reported on July 21 that from July 15th to 16th, the National Price Work Conference was held to make arrangements to do a good job of price work during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period and the second half of the year. The meeting analyzed the current price situation and requested the local price authorities to focus on strengthening price monitoring and early warning and anticipation management, strengthening the price control of bulk commodities, ensuring the supply and stabilizing prices of important livelihood commodities, and ensuring that the overall price level control target for this year is achieved.
Analysts believe that the price level in the next stage is expected to remain stable, and the possibility of trend rise in bulk commodity prices is low. There are conditions and foundations for achieving the overall price level control target this year.
Prices are generally stable. Talking about the current price level, Li Zhan, chief economist of the Research Department of China Merchants Fund, said that in June, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.1% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in May, indicating that price increases were relatively moderate. .
Tao Jin, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of the Suning Institute of Financial Research, said that the current prices are generally stable due to the adjustment of food prices represented by pig prices.
Tao Jin said that the concentration of live pigs for slaughter, the accumulation of stocks, and the weak demand for pork in summer have led to a sharp correction in pig prices. The supply of fresh vegetables and fruits has increased after the summer, suppressing price increases.
Liu Aihua, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, recently stated that there are foundations and conditions for achieving the annual 3% control target. Liu Aihua introduced that from the perspective of the three sectors that will affect the CPI in the next stage, the first is that food prices will not have much pressure on the overall rise when there is another bumper harvest of grain and the price of pork remains stable. Second, there is no basis for a sustained and substantial increase in the prices of industrial consumer goods. The third aspect is service prices. In the next stage, as the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, consumer demand for catering, accommodation, and tourism will gradually recover, market confidence will continue to increase, and residents’ income growth is also accelerating, and service prices will The degree will pick up. But on the whole, taking into account the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, service prices are also expected to maintain a slight increase.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, believes that due to the fall in the price of pork and other foods, prices are likely to maintain a moderate growth trend during the year, and the level of inflation is generally controllable.
The trend of bulk commodity prices is unlikely to rise. Wan Jinsong, Director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently that since mid-to-late May, the National Development and Reform Commission has closely tracked and monitored the trend of bulk commodity prices, taking multiple measures and continuing to exert efforts.
Under a series of measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the current bulk commodity prices are generally in a downward trend. According to new data from the National Development and Reform Commission, recently, the prices of steel, copper, and aluminum have fallen by 3% to 14% from their peaks in May, which drove the month-on-month increase of the industrial producer price index (PPI) in June to sharply narrower than the previous month. Percentage points.
Regarding the trend of bulk commodity prices in the second half of the year, Tao Jin believes that the possibility of a trend increase in bulk commodity prices is low, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the repeated global epidemic on the uncertainty of commodity prices.
Wen Bin believes that after a period of rapid rise in global commodity prices, the current rise has slowed down. Under the regulation of a series of domestic supply and price stabilization policies, the momentum of commodity price increases has been basically controlled. In the second half of the year, the prices of industrial products are expected to remain fluctuating and falling.
The regulation of commodity prices is expected to increase. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Bureau of Grain and Material Reserves have decided to put in the second batch of national reserves of 30,000 tons of copper, 90,000 tons of aluminum, and 50,000 tons of zinc in late July. Compared with the release, the scale of the second batch of various varieties has increased to varying degrees.

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